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- Jake Paul is a huge betting loser against Anthony Joshua tonight
- Over/under drops to just 2.5 juicy rounds on Over
- Read below for my expert Jake Paul vs Anthony Joshua prediction, latest odds and tape story
Jake Paul has talked about some wild fights, but nothing close to this. Tonight, he steps into the ring against Anthony Joshua, a two-time former heavyweight champion who has knocked out 25 of his 28 victories.
The Paul vs Joshua fight ends at Miami’s Kaseya Center, streaming live on Netflix. The books have AJ as a -1100 to -1200 favourite, and most expect this to end early. The question is not whether Joshua wins, but how long Paul can survive.
Here is my Jake Paul vs Anthony Joshua prediction, featuring the latest Paul vs Joshua odds and tape breakdown story.
Go to: PREDICTION | Last chances | The Tale of the Ribbon | Joshua analysis | Analysis of Paul
Jake Paul vs Anthony Joshua Prediction
My Paul vs Joshua expert prediction comes down to one thing: Joshua has every reason to make a statement here. He is coming off a knockout loss to Daniel Dubois and hasn’t fought in 15 months. A potential superfight with Tyson Fury is on the horizon. Do you think AJ wants to give Fury ammunition by going the distance with a YouTuber?
But I’m not touching Joshua by KO at -350. The value is not there. And given how these Netflix shows tend to play out, I wouldn’t be shocked if there was some sort of clause preventing an early knockout. Who knows if this is the broadcast’s defense or Paul’s defense. But the fact that we’re having this conversation tells you something about the state of these fights.
Paul’s whole approach will be survival. Expect movement, tightening, and anything else he can do to slow down the pace. Joshua is not reckless by nature. His last three wins came in rounds 2, 5 and 7. Against Otto Wallin, he patiently worked his way through the jab and wore it down before the stoppage in round 5.
I see this playing out similarly to those last few fights. Paul probably survives the early rounds by staying mobile and connecting. Joshua finds the timing, puts something clean in the middle rounds, and then it gets ugly.
If you are looking for a larger payout, AJ to win rounds 5-8 at +500 on FanDuel worth watching. Two of his last three wins came during that window.
- Final Prediction: Joshua by knockout, round 5
Jake Paul vs Anthony Joshua odds
The Paul vs Joshua odds have fallen slightly in Paul’s favor as match week approaches. Previous numbers were around Paul +700 / Joshua -1250. However, history has not changed. Joshua is a proven heavyweight. Paul hopes for a lucky strike before Joshua starts.
Based on the current money line, Joshua’s implied probability of winning is around 92%. Paul lands somewhere in the 11-14% range, depending on the book. These numbers think how this should happen on paper.
The Over 2.5 rounds end at -145, while the Under stands at +115. The books expect Joshua to get the knockout, but not right away. His KO/TKO line at -350 means roughly a 78% chance of a stoppage win.
Odds from December 19, 2025 on boxing betting apps.
A draw is offered at +2200 at BetMGM, which works out to an implied probability of around 4%. Long territory, but stranger things have happened in Jake Paul’s fights.
The -600 line for Paul’s fall tells you what the books think happens here. This means an 86% chance that Paul will hit the canvas at some point.
If you’re wondering why I didn’t include a knockout prop in my selection, it’s because the value isn’t there. AJ is -350 to win by KO/TKO, and most books won’t let you rate him over 2.5 rounds anyway.
Looking for more betting options? Check out our Paul vs Joshua prop bets.
Paul vs Joshua Tale of the Tape
The Paul vs Joshua tape tale shows just how sloppy this matchup is. AJ is 5 inches tall at Paul and 6 inches wide. He was almost 27 kilograms heavier at the weigh-in. Paul has never shared the ring with someone so great.
Anthony Joshua Analysis
Joshua enters with 28 wins, 25 by knockout. He is a former two-time unified heavyweight champion and Olympic gold medalist. This is no faded legend cashing a check. AJ remains a top-10 heavyweight and challenged for the IBF title in his last bout.
Yes, he was stopped by Dubois. But Dubois is one of the strongest punchers in the division, and Joshua showed toughness by getting up before the stoppage. His other losses came against Oleksandr Usyk (twice) and Andy Ruiz, all legitimate elite opponents.
If you’re wondering if Joshua is taking this fight lightly, think again. AJ has been training in Spain with the team of Usyk, the current undisputed heavyweight champion.
Joshua has dealt with crossover opponents before. When Francis Ngannou tried to make the jump from the UFC, AJ put him out in less than two rounds. Ngannou was bigger than Paul by a good margin. That fight didn’t go well for the MMA guy, and this one probably won’t.
Former pro Lawrence Okolie, who trained alongside AJ in the GB Amateur system, calls him a “fire of nature” athletically. In those days, AJ could do track work and agility drills as well, if not better.
Jake Paul Analysis
Paul’s record stands at 12-1 with 7 knockouts. His only loss came via split decision to Tommy Fury, a part-time Love Island star. This is the only real data we have about Paul against actual boxing competition.
Check out his resume. He has defeated retired UFC fighters (Anderson Silva, Nate Diaz, Tyron Woodley, Ben Askren), a bare-knuckle fighter (Mike Perry), a 58-year-old Mike Tyson and a 39-year-old Julio Cesar Chavez Jr.
In his last fight against Chavez Jr., Paul showed cracks and limitations. Chavez was struggling with addiction and of course is much smaller, but still Paul gave him trouble late in the fight. Now, Paul opens up to face a world class heavyweight.
Okolie pointed out a flaw in Paul’s style: he falls forward on his front foot when attacking. Against lower-level opponents, he succeeds. Against AJ, this mistake takes your head off.
Body language experts who analyzed the public workouts noticed that Paul showed signs of nerves and anxiety. He fiddled with his hat, swayed from side to side, and jumped to his feet. Meanwhile, Joshua looked locked in with precise movements.
Paul’s weight of 216.6 kilograms puts him at a serious disadvantage. He’s never fought over 227 pounds professionally, and that was against a 58-year-old.
If Paul somehow wins, it would be the biggest upset in boxing history. Bigger than Douglas-Tyson.
Final decision
By the end of the night, we’ll know if reality finally caught up with Jake Paul. Joshua has it all. A dominant victory propels him towards the Fury superfight, and anything less gives the critics all the ammunition they need.
For Paul, it’s about proving he belongs. He called it the biggest upset in sports history if he wins. In boxing? He may be right. But the guy who couldn’t land Tommy Fury is about to share the ring with someone who was fighting for world titles 15 months ago. Good luck with that.
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