Packers vs Bears Predictions, Picks, Latest Injury Reports for Saturday

• Expect a playoff atmosphere when the Green Bay Packers and Chicago Bears square off on Saturday, December 20
• The winner will take over first place in the NFC North with just two games to play
• Below, see my top Packers vs Bears bets, predictions, data-driven picks, plus the latest betting lines

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One of the NFL’s most storied rivalries takes center stage in a key Week 16 matchup with significant NFC North implications as the Green Bay Packers (9-4-1, 4-2-1 away, ATS, O/U) travel to face the Chicago Bears (10-4, 5-1 home, ATS, O/U, Saturday, O/U).

This division battle is billed as nearly a pick’em, with the Bears installed as slight home favorites in what promises to be a defensive battle. The quarterback duel between Jordan Love and Caleb Williams headlines the action, but both signal-callers face uncertainty with top offensive weapons battling injuries. Stars like DJ Moore and Josh Jacobs headline numerous injury reports that could reshape the entire game.

This massive divisional class starts at 8:20pm ET. Below, I’ll break down the advanced stats, injury landscape and head-to-head advantages to find the best picks and bets for Packers vs Bears in Week 16.

Best Packers vs Bears Bets: Data Driven Picks

This last one NFL Odds Chalk it up to a near-coin-flip scenario, but the underlying metrics reveal clear edges that smart bettors can exploit. While both offenses have shown efficiency throughout the season, significant injury concerns and a glaring statistical disparity create actionable betting opportunities.

GB vs CHI moneyline pick: Bears Moneyline (-122) at BetRivers

The most compelling bet on this matchup has the Bears to win outright at -122. While taking Green Bay as a slight road underdog (+1.5) may seem tempting, Chicago’s fundamental metrics support an outright win that makes the money line play superior value.

The single most decisive factor favoring the Bears is their dominance +20 turnover differential advantage. Chicago’s defense has generated 21 tackles and recovered nine fumbles this season, consistently turning over field position. In stark contrast, the Packers only manage a +2 turnover differential and are now without All-Pro edge rusher Micah Parsons, who is key to Green Bay’s ability to wreak havoc.

Head-to-head statistical comparison

Chicago also maintains a scoring edge, averaging 25.9 points per game compared to Green Bay’s 24.6.

More critically, the Packers’ backfield injury crisis threatens to disrupt their offensive momentum. With Josh Jacobs and MarShawn Lloyd both failing to participate in practice, Green Bay faces a potential disaster in establishing ground control and managing long-range situations against a defense that thrives on creating short-field opportunities through layups.

GB vs CHI Game – Total Pick: Under 46.5 Total Points (-111)

Despite both teams averaging 50.5 points per game, multiple injury reports for both support a slower defense in a in fact playoff game.

Green Bay’s Offensive Concerns:

• The potential absence of two key defenders (Jacobs and Lloyd) fundamentally changes their attacking identity
• Compromised ground game forces longer third down situations against a hungry defense
• Limited receiver depth with Christian Watson and Dontayvion Wicks both nursing injuries

Chicago’s offensive limitations:

• The practice of missing key receivers Luther Burden III and Rome Odunze creates target distribution problems
• D’Andre Swift’s groin injury limits the primary threat on the ground
• The reduced efficiency of the passing game forces a more conservative game

With both offenses able to function at reduced capacity, expect a field position battle dominated by defensive schemes and clock control rather than explosive scoring moves.

Best player to bet on: Caleb Williams over 0.5 interceptions (+108)

This player prop offers incredible value with plus-money odds. While Williams has protected the football admirably this season (a team-high just 10 turnovers), the circumstances favor Green Bay’s defense creating a breakout opportunity.

With Williams’ top targets at risk of injury, he may be forced to extend plays or try throws in tighter coverage windows. IN +116 chancesthis represents tremendous value for a realistic score in a high-stakes divisional contest where defensive pressure usually creates turnover opportunities.

Packers vs Bears Public Betting Lineup: The sharp money returns to the favorite house

This weekend Public NFL Betting divisions show razor-thin margins in all markets. Chicago is taking 58% of the moneyline payout on 48% of the bets, along with 55% of the ATS for the same percentage of bets.

In total, 60% of the money is over 53% of the bets.

The money line market reveals a possible split between recreational and professional money, with larger bets backing the favored Bears despite public sentiment leaning toward the Packers.

Green Bay Packers vs Chicago Bears Current Odds

Odds as of 2:39 PM ET, December 19th.

After removing the bookmakers’ commission, the normalized probabilities show a 52.4% means the probability of profit for the Bears and 47.6% for the Packers, confirming the market’s assessment of a closely contested battle.

A $20 bet on Chicago -122

Injury Report: Critical Players to Monitor

Both teams face significant injury concerns that could dramatically affect Saturday’s outcome. The health status of several key offensive contributors remains uncertain heading into this divisional matchup.

Team Stats Comparison: Identifying Key Matchups

The statistical comparison reveals several key battlegrounds that support the Bears’ money line. Chicago’s ground game superiority (152.2 yards per game vs. 117.0) is magnified by Green Bay’s backfield injury crisis, potentially forcing the Packers into obvious passing situations where the Bears’ league-leading sack rate (2.1 per game) could create short fields.

Jordan Love (Passing Yards O/U 228.5) faces tremendous pressure against a defense that has caught 21 passes this season.

The time-of-possession differential (Chicago +4:14 per game) shows the Bears’ preference to control the tempo through their ground attack, which fits perfectly with a lower-scoring affair dominated by defensive schemes and field position battles rather than explosive offensive plays.