Experts warn Maduro’s fall could unleash ‘even worse’ successor

As the Trump administration ramps up pressure on Venezuela, experts warn that the fall of Nicolás Maduro could open the door to a successor “even worse” than the dictator himself and free a landscape dominated by drug cartels, guerrilla factions and armed warlords who have entrenched themselves in Venezuela for decades.

Venezuela today is less a centralized dictatorship and more a patchwork of criminal territories controlled by cartels, Colombian insurgents and regime-aligned militias. Analysts told Fox News Digital that US politics now confronts not only Maduro, but also an entrenched ecosystem of non-state armed groups that could seize power in a post-Maduro vacuum.

Roxanna Vigil, a fellow at the Council on Foreign Relations and former US national security official focused on Latin America, said the trajectory is now binary.

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“The way I see it, what comes next will largely depend on the direction of this US pressure campaign,” Vigil said. “If it goes in the direction of escalation and conflict, that means there will be little control — or even less ability to influence what comes next.”

The danger, experts say, is not just a stronger version of Maduro, but the rise of armed actors who already control strips of Venezuelan territory. Vigil said an uncontrolled collapse could unleash something far more dangerous than the current regime. “You could have someone potentially worse than Maduro,” he said.

Jason Marczak, vice president and senior director of the Atlantic Council’s Adrienne Arsht Latin America Center, told Fox News Digital that the power centers include some of the most violent criminal syndicates in the Western Hemisphere.

“It is difficult to imagine that things are worse than they are under Nicolás Maduro. But what is critical is not only that Maduro leaves, but those around him – those who will only be perpetrators of the injustices that Maduro puts forward – that none of them are allowed to come to power.”

If the leader of the opposition, María Corina Machado or Edmundo González, fails to fill the void in a post-Maduro Venezuela, experts point to a crowded field of dangerous actors who could try to take power if Maduro were to fall suddenly.

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Diosdado hair

Diosdado Cabello emerged as the most feared and influential figure in the regime. The Nation He describes him as the long-time number two of Chavismo, with great control over the party machine and the propaganda apparatus. Its power extends from the internal political army to the interior and the portfolio of justice.

Cabello was sanctioned by the United States Treasury in 2018 for corruption, money laundering, embezzlement and links to drug trafficking networks in the state. The Reuters report documented how the United States later increased rewards for information leading to his arrest as part of broader efforts to target the Cartel de los Soles. Analysts say a Cabello-led government could consolidate party power, state security forces and media control under a single hard-liner.

Jorge Rodriguez

Jorge Rodríguez, president of the National Assembly and one of Maduro’s closest political operatives, is another senior figure positioned for any succession scenario. La Nación highlights his prominence in the ruling elite, noting his role as mayor, communications minister and key strategist.

The US Treasury has sanctioned Rodríguez for actions that undermine democratic institutions, according to a Atlantic Council Summary of OFAC designations. Experts warn that Rodríguez could impose a more technocratic – but no less authoritarian – version of Chavismo, combining negotiation skills with control of electoral processes and state information systems.

Vladimir Padrino Lopez

Vladimir Padrino López, Venezuela’s defense minister, is portrayed by the Nation as the backbone of the military establishment and the guarantor of Maduro’s survival. The armed forces remain loyal because of him, forming an axis of power between Padrino and Maduro.

The US Treasury has sanctioned Padrino López as part of Maduro’s inner circle for supporting an authoritarian system and enabling repression. Observers warn that if Padrino were to assume leadership, Venezuela could move toward an even more militarized model — one in which political authority is openly fused with military command structures.

Delcy Rodriguez

Delcy Rodríguez, Vice President of Venezuela, is described as a central political operative in the regime and part of a powerful governing duo with her brother Jorge. Its influence extends to institutional, economic and diplomatic spheres. The US Treasury has sanctioned Rodríguez as part of Maduro’s inner circle for helping to dismantle democratic governance, and the European Union lists her in measures for human rights violations and the erosion of the rule of law.

Analysts note that Rodríguez has increasingly taken control of critical sectors, including the oil industry, placing it at the center of the opaque revenue structures that support the regime. A transition led by her, they warn, could further strengthen state control over the economy and the political apparatus.

Cilia Flores

Cilia Flores, the first lady and a longtime Chavista power broker, rounds out the circle of figures identified by La Nación as essential to Maduro’s power. Flores has held senior positions, including president of the National Assembly, attorney general and member of the PSUV leadership.

The US Treasury sanctioned Flores in 2018 as part of wider actions targeting Maduro’s inner circle and his corruption networks, a move widely reported by Reuters. Members of his family have also faced sanctions or charges related to drug cases. Analysts say Flores’ political reach and influence in the party and legal system make her a pivotal player in any succession calculations.

Iván Hernández Dala

Hernández Dala heads Venezuela’s military counterintelligence service (DGCIM) and commands the presidential guard, making him one of the most feared figures in the security apparatus. His control of internal repression gives him significant leverage in any power struggle. He was designated by the State Department in 2019 for his involvement in serious human rights violations.

The Treasury Department’s Office of Foreign Assets Control (OFAC) wrote that under its command “Abuses that were carried out by the DGCIM and SEBIN included brutal beatings, asphyxiation, cutting the feet with razor blades, electric shocks and death threats.”

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Marczak and Vigil believe Washington’s next moves — and whether they lead to negotiation or escalation — will determine whether Venezuela moves toward democracy or toward something even worse.

As Marczak said, “A victory is not just the abandonment of Nicolás Maduro. . . . A victory is actually a transition to democratic forces.”